Investment in the market is always associated with better
analysis, greater courage and larger risk appetite. There are various puzzles
like demonetization and trump effect on the economy. Several dynamic factors
must be considered before making decisions and all of them seem to be
unpredictable. But there exists a leaf of faith in every situation whether it
was 2008 recession or the current situation on the basis of which one can
derive his decision. And today the removal of cash withdrawal limit from banks
after 13 March 2017 can be turned to the same leaf to determine the track of
Indian economy.
Post union budget, the biggest decision other than keeping
the repo rate unchanged is the removal of cash withdrawal limit from banks
which would have its major impact on banking sector and whole economy. India
has always been a cash dependent economy. If we divide Indian economy on the
basis of business scale, we would observe greater contribution of small and
medium sector industries to the economy over the large sector. Less circulation
of money and small withdrawal limit have adversely affected small and medium sectors
of economy for short term. Removal of withdrawal limit will prove to be a big
relief for small sector but this is not going to be very helpful for large
sector as the government has put limits on allowable cash expenditure and
maximum cash expenditure can be only 10000 per day and in any instance one
cannot transact more than 300000 in cash. Well this move would boost the
affected trade cycle and would favour cash based business activities. It would
increase the investment activities and asset creation by those small and medium
sectors. As soon as the investment activities would increase it would enhance
business activities, contributes to employment generation and ultimately
contributes to better growth of the economy.
Considering the effect on the entire economy it would hit
the banking sector most. Banking sector has enjoyed since demonetization, SBI
the largest commercial bank in India gained almost 14.3% on the stock exchange
with the immediate effect of demonetization. Banks are enjoying low cost funds
in the form of current and saving account deposits. They whenever enjoy high
liquidity invest it in RBI securities which even earns them more than their
operating margin. But in the same line, banks witnessed tremendous fall in
their credit business. It has touched to a new low since 90’s. And also they
have lost the earning opportunity by waiving transaction fees to promote
digital payment. As of now banks are enjoying transaction fee and low cost fund
too. But soon this would be yesterday’s thing due to removal withdrawal limit.
The move will boost credit business of bank and which means banks would bring
the RBI securities back in the market to maintain their liquidity and would
also loss their low cost deposits. But all these are not going to happen
simultaneously. The immediate effect on the bank would be loss of low cost fund
after removing the withdrawal limit. This would put the entire banking sector
in pressure for short period as it would take time to streamline the process of
credit growth which means investment for longer period is more beneficial. But
in the long run it would gain them their lending business and their credit
growth in the line of massively developing Indian economy. And the best is
going to happen to fastest growing Indian economy with the enhanced
contribution from small sector and help economy to return to the same track of
pre demonetization development and that too with more intense, fresh and
prosperous environment.
All of yours suggestions are warmly welcomed.......
Good write up bro.. You explain whole effect in very easier way.. keep it up...
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot sir...
DeleteNyz Job...
ReplyDeleteThank you so much Piyush Patel
DeleteNice arrangement of thought drafting. You should try to elaborate why Government had planned to make such step with hushing preparation without much inclusive advice from large community of economists as well as planning commission intellectuals.
ReplyDeleteThank you Mr. Priyansh for your recommendations, well the above mentioned matter could not be discussed. Such matters always require high level of secrecy and our government was also able to maintain the same.
DeleteAwesomely explained....🖒 good job
ReplyDeleteThanks Aayush...
DeleteNicely done Mr. Ajay Agrawal, your attempt to describe all the factors affecting my banking investment is really wonderful. It is very helpful for me. Eagerly waiting for your next edition
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for your compliments and motivation to write more. Your interest impels me to work harder.
DeleteAjay,you explained complete process in very simple way,due to this demonetization even FMCG got affected but this also regained with effective time.The limit on cash transaction will lead Indian economy to higher phase and will make India more powerful as India is one of the most dependent economy on cash transactions.
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot. The move not only affected FMCG industries but to the whole market. Yes, the quick recovery helps to boost the economy further. The reasons behind putting the limitation on cash transactions are to bring all business activities into the main chain of economy and to eradicate the dependency on cash.
ReplyDeleteGood job
ReplyDeleteGood going
I m proud of you Ajay
Thanks a lot....
DeleteImpressive research ajay... Keep it up... All i can say on this action of government that at one point removing bank withdrawal limit will affect the banking sectors as you have duscussed in your article... On other point of time it will be a great help for business sector where flow of continuous cash is must.. but in all these things we quite ignored PM Narendra Modi Ji's initiative of digital bharat. With more cash in hand people will again resort to traditional ways of transactions..
ReplyDeleteThank you Disha, while it is mandatory to have a good flow of cash for smooth functioning of business activities but there exists a possibility that people would resort to their traditional way of dealing in cash. In order to solve this problem government has put various limits on cash transactions.
DeleteNice article nicely published
ReplyDeleteNice article nicely published
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot Sachin...
Deletethough one of the draw backs would be that persons holding money for others during the demonetisation period in their JAN DHAN accounts will be able to remove all that money in one go. result poor person who was holding that money in hopes of interest income will now be forced to remove it early also putting the account under scrutiny .
ReplyDeleteDespite various suggestion, there may exist some people who are holding other's money. They must step up and do the service for the nation and stop indulging in any such act in future.
ReplyDeleteGood one. Nice blog
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete